Geopolitics, AI and Forest Investment

When you get investors behind closed doors, this is what they’ll tell you (and I’ll tell you how it relates to Forest Investment)

We work in a sector that values transparency – but there is something to be said for anonymity.

It keeps you out of headlines, protects your innovations and perhaps less obviously, reveals how investors really think. Ask an investor to speak openly about how geopolitics and AI are transforming their strategy, and you’ll often get a polished, high-level answer.

But ask thousands of them anonymously – and the tone changes.

That’s the result of the CAIA Association’s recently released The World Rewired report, which captures insights from over 14,000 alternative investment professionals across private equity, credit, real assets and multi-asset strategies.

This week, I’ve pulled out a few of the key themes – and what they mean for forest investment.  

Re-wiring Capital Markets – and Forest Investment

The report has one overarching message: we are not in a cycle. We are in a structural shift.

Capital markets are being reshaped by two converging forces – geopolitics and technological acceleration – and the forestry asset class is not immune to these changes.

Below are three themes worth paying attention to for our asset class.

One of the clearest signals from the report is that capital is no longer moving as freely as it once did.

1. Geopolitical fragmentation is regionalizing capital flows

Instead, it is becoming more deliberate – aligning with national priorities, industrial policy and strategic sectors. Just as capital markets reached peak globalization, they are now shifting back toward something more regional, more political and more nuanced.

“Investors are increasingly tailoring strategies to align with local priorities such as energy security, technological sovereignty, and domestic industrial policy.”

For forestry it means that a global strategy built from a distance is becoming harder to execute. Managers need to be embedded in the regions in which they invest – not just to source deals, but to understand the direction of policy, the influence of local capital, and the realities shaping end markets.

2. AI, Geopolitics and the Investment Professional of tomorrow

There is a lot of discussion around AI improving efficiency, but the more interesting takeaway from the report is how it is reshaping the role of the investment professional. Technical capability remains essential, but it’s no longer enough. Investment decisions now require systems thinking and an understanding of local nuance. This isn’t just about automating analysis – it’s about seeing the full picture.

“This has raised concerns among senior leaders about automating entry-level roles and their impact on talent pipelines. If routine tasks disappear, how do firms train the next generation of investors?”

In forestry, where investment horizons are long and decisions carry lasting consequences, this evolution is particularly relevant. It reinforces the need for professionals who can think beyond the spreadsheet – who understand stewardship, the risk complexities of environmental dependencies and impacts and how to operate across jurisdictions that behave differently.

3. Semi-liquidity, Blockchain and Tokenization

The report points to semi-liquid structures, blockchain and tokenization as key areas of innovation in investment vehicles.

For forestry, this is an interesting space to watch.

Blockchain could streamline some of the more manual and fragmented processes that still exist across private markets – automating capital calls, reporting and distributions, and reducing operational friction.

Tokenization, in theory, could open the door to fractional ownership of forestry assets – broadening access to what has traditionally been a highly illiquid asset class.

But there is still a gap between potential and reality.

Forest investment is still, in many respects, in an education phase. Demand is growing, but not yet at a level where widespread fractional ownership feels like a natural next step.

And layered on top of that are the practical constraints – regulatory frameworks that are often jurisdiction-specific and not yet equipped to handle these structures at scale.

So while the infrastructure is evolving quickly, adoption may take longer – particularly for an asset class like forestry that is inherently long-term and operationally grounded.

Building a Competitive and Agile Forest Investment Firm

Sentiments are also pointing to organizational change – away from a hierarchical structure to agility.

“Competitive advantage will increasingly hinge on organizational agility, cultural resilience, and talent strategies that embrace cross-functional collaboration and continuous learning. Firms that fail to embed these capabilities risk slower decision making, missed opportunities in emerging themes, and diminished relevance.”

Most forest investment firms are still operating in silos – forestry, finance, ESG, compliance, business development – each shaping strategy from their own angle, but rarely together, early enough.

That’s where things slow down.

Strategy development drags, internal alignment weakens, investors lose interest and momentum is lost.

The firms that break silos early, build alignment upfront and move decisively – will be the ones that investors back.

This is exactly the challenge my strategy design workshops are built to address. Over the course of two days, I lead your cross-functional team through a tailored workshop that fosters this agile decision-making. In real time, we address the concerns and opportunities seen in the silos and fine-tune your strategy for internal buy-in and investor confidence and give you a framework to move more efficiently from strategy to capital deployment.   

I’m interested to hear how you’re viewing the impacts of this ‘new normal’ for capital markets on forest investment in your business. Book a call and we can chat!